The tripwires we are watching
Each one is a specific, checkable event with a probability attached and a written record of every time we moved it. 8 are live — revised inside 21 days. The rest are archived, not deleted.
T1Iran/Proxy Strikes US Carrier or Mainland100%
ELEVATED — DAY 28 · revised today · 141 revisions on record
T2Saudi Aramco Production Infrastructure Destroyed100%
CONFIRMED — PARTIAL · revised today · 55 revisions on record
T3Turkey-Greece Kinetic Incident (Cyprus/Aegean)100%
ELEVATED — HIGH · revised today · 46 revisions on record
T8Iran Physically Mines Strait of Hormuz100%
CONFIRMED — CLOSED · revised today · 139 revisions on record
T5Mass Casualty Civilian Strike in Iran85%
CRITICAL — 1,900+ DEAD · revised 6d ago · 12 revisions on record
T9Hezbollah / Lebanon Full Regional War80%
CONFIRMED — ESCALATING · revised 21d ago · 43 revisions on record
T10US Tariff Constitutional Crisis / Economic Shock74%
ELEVATED · revised 5d ago · 14 revisions on record
T7Major US Bank or Private Credit Failure72%
ELEVATED — STRESS BUILDING · revised 2d ago · 11 revisions on record
◆ ARCHIVED (6)
Quiet for more than 21 days, or never revised. Kept because a tripwire that went quiet is not the same as one we got wrong, and the record should still be able to tell the difference.
Framework-derived analytical assessment. Not investment advice.