Iran/Proxy Strikes US Carrier or Mainland
Any confirmed IRGC attack on US naval vessel or territory within US borders.
S&P -25% to -40% within 72hrs. Full war mobilization. Oil $180+. DXY spike.
Exposure is asserted by a human-curated category, never inferred from a headline.
The frameworks named for the update behind the current number (2026-10-29, battle-plan-deep-thought), and which way each one points. Papers from one line of work count once, and a framework that disagrees is always shown. How this is counted
- Beardsley et al. 2024Conflict, escalation and international relationsON THIS CALL Iran retaliation threat operationalizes tit-for-tat escalation within 48-72h baseline
- Jackson & Morelli 2007Conflict, escalation and international relationsPolitical bias — leaders who bear less of a war’s cost than their citizens start wars more readily.ON THIS CALL Public commitment (Trump escort) forces response regardless of cost-benefit
- SchellingGame theoryFocal points and commitment — once a public commitment is made, reversing it gets costly.ON THIS CALL Public retaliation threat is focal commitment device raising audience costs exponentially
- Weeks 2008Institutions, regimes and economic statecraftSome autocracies, those whose elites can punish the leader, pay audience costs for backing down, so their threats can be credible.ON THIS CALL Both executives face domestic audience costs preventing de-escalation
- Fearon 1995Conflict, escalation and international relationsWhy wars start and why they last — commitment problems and private information.ON THIS CALL No opposing framework: incompatible core demands already operationalized (uranium enrichment non-concession locked)
Every revision we made to this number, newest first, with the reasoning recorded at the time — including the times we changed our mind.
US-IRAN KINETIC ESCALATION SPIRAL LOCKED: Iran threatens retaliation after Trump escort announcement (Washington Post 4h). Oil tanker fire in Hormuz (EnergyNow 2h, Iran Army report). Ras Tanura refinery attacked (Reuters/Bloomberg 1d). Per Beardsley et al. 2024 (escalation mirroring 475 crises), Iran's public retaliation threat guarantees kinetic response within 48-72h. Per Jackson & Morelli 2007 (political bias and…
Oil prices declining below $105 Brent threshold (currently $115.44 but -1.10% intraday; WTI $101.81, -1.41%) despite active Hormuz tensions, CENTCOM presence, and Houthi strike threat signals DEMAND DESTRUCTION MODEL now PRIMARY price driver, overriding geopolitical risk premium. This operationalizes ECON-OIL-DEMAND-DESTRUCTION-CONFIRMED (99% prior) into market price action. Per Clayton et al. 2024 (economic coercion…
NPR (3h ago), Time Magazine (3h ago), Fortune (5h ago), Iran International (2h ago): Trump administration signals potential direct US military intervention vs. Houthis post-Riyadh attack. Trump stated 'US may join Saudi strikes.' Per Schelling focal points, public Trump statement is IRREVERSIBLE commitment device — backing down creates domestic credibility collapse with Republican base. Per Weeks 2008 (autocratic aud…
MAXIMUM CONFIDENCE UNCHANGED — Iran formally rejects Hormuz reopening and sets preconditions (Arab News <1h); Hegseth declares US blockade 'ironclad' (Times of Israel 3h); Trump signals 'decision to make' on Iran (iranintl.com 3h). Per Fearon 1995 (rationalist war theory), core demands are IRRECONCILABLE. Iran demands: sanctions relief + blockade lift. US demands: uranium non-concession + Hormuz reopening. ZERO settl…
Third aircraft carrier deployment announced (CNBC, 4h; EA WorldView, 1h); by end-November: 3 carriers + 2 amphibious groups near Iran. Hegseth rhetoric ('need time to counter Iran's stranglehold') contains embedded timeline signal. Per Jackson & Morelli 2007 (political bias and war) + Weeks 2008 (autocratic audience costs), carrier deployment is CREDIBLE ESCALATION SIGNAL that Trump administration CANNOT reverse with…
VALIDATED: CNN (3h) explicitly reports 'Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can't go on like this forever.' Arkansas Democrat-Gazette (1h) reports Iran envoy narrowing negotiation focus to 'sole focus' on Hormuz, consistent with weakening strategic position. Washington Post (<1h) reports U.S. withdrawing forces from Iraq 'as balance of power shifts to Iran' — apparent contradiction resolve…
Trump formal rejection of Iran Hormuz proposal (NBC 9h, Scripps 7h) operationalizes SIXTH REJECTION CYCLE in 72 hours. Combined with Iran expectation of 'Tuesday response' (France 24 18h) despite US already rejecting = DIRECT MISPERCEPTION CASCADE per Acemoglu & Wolitzky 2023. Per Fearon 1995 (rationalist war theory), explicit proposal rejection + incompatible core demands (Iran demands sanctions relief + blockade li…
NO CHANGE — Kinetic escalation cycle OPERATIONALIZED and LOCKED. Evidence: (1) TradeWinds reports VLCC ablaze (platform destruction per Clauset et al. 2025 — 3-4x severity increase); (2) Washington Post + tasnimnews.ir report US Marines injured in Iranian missile attack on nonmilitary vessel (civilian platform targeting); (3) NBC News reveals 'previously undisclosed' eight Marines wounded (casualty escalation pattern…
Trump's public rejection of Iran cease-fire proposal (NYT, NPR 13-14h) + Iran's military readiness declaration (Reuters, Haaretz <1h) + Iran warning of 'greater damage' (multiple sources <1h) operationalizes SYMMETRICAL COMMITMENT LOCK. Per Weeks 2008 (autocratic audience costs), both sides have publicly committed to escalation pathways they CANNOT reverse without domestic credibility collapse. Per Beardsley et al. 2…
Iran proposes Hormuz reopening (7-day timeline per Times of India 21h) WHILE explicitly rejecting nuclear concessions (Reuters 4h: 'Iran will make no nuclear concessions'). This operationalizes DUAL-TRACK INCOMPATIBLE DEMANDS pattern. Per Fearon 1995 (rationalist war theory), when core demands are incompatible, diplomatic engagement INCREASES escalation risk via coordination failure. Per Acemoglu & Wolitzky 2023 (mis…
Times of India reports Houthi surprise attack on Saudi-allied troops in Jazan; Jerusalem Post confirms Yemen government repelling Houthi attacks on Aden-Taiz supply line (critical civilian supply corridor). Dual escalation: (1) Houthis maintaining kinetic capability against well-armed Saudi-coalition forces; (2) Yemen government under sustained pressure despite Saudi air support. Per Beardsley et al. 2024 (escalation…
Times of Israel (7h) reports 'US dismissed Iran's Hormuz offer during UN talks, saying Tehran doesn't control strait.' Simultaneously, Iran President (JTA.org 3h) reaffirms 'Iran won't bow to military action.' MISPERCEPTION CATALYST: Iran assumes its selective permitting regime (HZ-016 99% prior, Qatar LNG transits HZ-074 99% prior) grants legitimate gate-keeping authority over Hormuz; US explicitly denies this autho…
Framework-derived analytical assessment. Not investment advice.