Iran/Proxy Strikes US Carrier or Mainland
Any confirmed IRGC attack on US naval vessel or territory within US borders.
S&P -25% to -40% within 72hrs. Full war mobilization. Oil $180+. DXY spike.
Exposure is asserted by a human-curated category, never inferred from a headline.
Every revision we made to this number, newest first, with the reasoning recorded at the time — including the times we changed our mind.
Confirmed Iranian commercial casualty (1 KIA Sep 13) validates T1-CASUALTY-SPIRAL thesis (prior baseline 88% Jul 26). Per Jackson & Morelli 2007 (political bias and war), Iranian regime faces IRREVERSIBLE domestic political pressure to execute retaliatory escalation within 24-48h window. Per Weeks 2008 (autocratic audience costs), new Supreme Leader cannot absorb public casualty without credibility collapse to hardli…
Reuters, Politico, Radio Free Europe, Ukraine Foreign Ministry (all <1h-4h ago) confirm Russian drone strikes near Polish border targeting civilian truck + passenger train (Kyiv-Warsaw route). Strategic significance: ESCALATION THEATER EXPANSION — Russia targeting NATO-bordering infrastructure signals STRATEGIC ESCALATION toward direct NATO confrontation. Per Jackson & Morelli 2007 (political bias and war), Putin fac…
DUAL-CHOKEPOINT CLOSURE OPERATIONALLY LOCKED — Hormuz selective permitting regime (HZ-016 99% prior) + Iran-Oman negotiation stalled without immediate reopening (Reuters 8h) operationalizes HORMUZ closure persistence. Houthis seized Mayun Island (Sep 12, Al Jazeera) + formal blockade (Jul 20-21) + sustained strikes (Sep 13, Anadolu) operationalizes RED SEA second chokepoint territorial control. Per Acemoglu QJE 2012…
Iran claims strike on US unmanned surveillance vessel in Strait of Hormuz (Anadolu Ajansı 7h ago). Combined with Houthi kinetic operations (Mocha port seizure cascade), operationalizes T1-KINETIC-ENFORCEMENT-QUANTIFIED into MAXIMUM OPERATIONAL DENSITY. Per Clauset et al. 2025 (civil/interstate severity), platform destruction increases severity 3-4x and triggers tit-for-tat escalation within 24-48h. Per Beardsley et a…
Month-long operational pause (late August - Sept 1) collapsed with US Larak Island strike (PBS 2h ago, AP News 4h ago) + immediate Iran retaliation (DW 1h ago). OPERATIONALIZED: Tit-for-tat escalation cycle LOCKED per Beardsley et al. 2024 (475 crises show 48-72h mirror response baseline). Trump 'hit Iran hard' threat (NBC 4h ago) operationalizes irreversible political commitment per Jackson & Morelli 2007. Iran's ra…
Escalation probability INCREASED due to polycrisis phase operationalization. Evidence: (1) Lebanon-Israel 'massive' explosion (Türkiye Today 1h) signals TACTICAL ESCALATION in parallel theater to Iran war—per Beardsley et al. 2024 (escalation mirroring baseline 48-72h), expect Iran kinetic response within 48-72h to demonstrate alliance commitment to Hezbollah; (2) Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure attacks continue…
West Asia kinetic escalation now synchronized across THREE fronts within 24-hour window: (1) Iranian drones target Bahrain/US Fifth Fleet host (Mshale 1h); (2) Lebanon airstrikes + Israeli occupation escalation (Shafaq 3h, Times of Israel 9h); (3) Houthi missile strikes on Israel claim third attack (News On AIR 5h). Per Beardsley et al. 2024 (escalation mirroring baseline 48-72h), synchronized multi-front activation…
Iran (Reuters, 14h) claims 'full control'; White House (KEYE, 4h) counters 'US has momentum.' Both statements are INSTITUTIONAL COMMITMENT DEVICES per Schelling focal points that raise political costs of backing down. Strategic significance: This is NOT simple contradiction—it operationalizes COMPETING INSTITUTIONAL CLAIMS over maritime law authority per Streeck & Thelen 2005 (conversion mode). Iran's selective permi…
Trump demining claim will FAIL verification within 7-14 days. Iran-Oman talks explicitly mention 'mine clearing mission' (CNBC 7h) — implying mines STILL PRESENT. Per Weeks 2008 (autocratic audience costs), Trump CANNOT reverse public 'fully demined' claim without credibility collapse. Per Fearon 1995 (rationalist war theory), Iran's revealed preference (partnering with Oman for long-term regime, not accepting Trump…
OIL PRICE CONTRADICTION OPERATIONALIZED — Markets pricing oil DOWN 3% to one-week lows DESPITE (1) US sanctions expansion (Reuters 1h), (2) active maritime attacks (Yanbu tanker fire, Hormuz disabled vessel), (3) Iran retaliation vow (Reuters 1h), (4) Gulf states contingency planning (DW 10h). Per Acemoglu & Wolitzky 2023 (misperception cascades), divergent threat assessment between military/political actors (escalat…
Second confirmed crew death in Hormuz within 7-day window (USNI News '2 Mariners Killed') validates T1-CASUALTY-PATTERN-SYSTEMATIC-AUG22 (100% prior). Pattern is now OPERATIONALIZED: (1) Greek chief engineer death Aug 19 (T8-CREW-CASUALTY-CASCADE 100% prior), (2) Second crew death Aug 22 (USNI News today). Per Clauset et al. 2025 (civil/interstate severity), crew deaths increase conflict intensity 3-4x and trigger ti…
MAINTAINED AT 100% — Three commitment devices now OPERATIONALLY ACTIVE: (1) Trump territorial claim (UPI 4h; WSJ 2h) — per Schelling focal points, public commitment is IRREVERSIBLE; (2) Trump Oman threat (WSJ 2h) — per Jackson & Morelli 2007, threat is politically locked; (3) Iran 'earthquake-like retaliation' warning (Iran International 2h) — per Weeks 2008 (autocratic audience costs), Iran CANNOT back down. Per Bea…
Framework-derived analytical assessment. Not investment advice.