Global Food Supply Chain Collapse

Sustained dual chokepoint closure (30+ days) forces fertilizer/grain rerouting + Gulf food import disruption + EM panic buying.

Fertilizer +60-100%. Food inflation +15-30% in import-dependent nations within 90 days. Gulf state rationing. EM social unrest. Agricultural commodity supercycle.

Exposure is asserted by a human-curated category, never inferred from a headline.

Every revision we made to this number, newest first, with the reasoning recorded at the time — including the times we changed our mind.

No reasoned revision is on record for this tripwire.