Dual Maritime Chokepoint Collapse (Hormuz + Red Sea)
Both Hormuz AND Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb simultaneously denied to commercial shipping for 30+ days.
Oil $110-130 sustained, container rates +300-500%, fertilizer crisis, Gulf state food security EMERGENCY (80-90% food imports by sea). No bypass — Saudi Yanbu only works if Red Sea is safe. It isn't. UNCTAD: $192B annual trade cost.
Exposure is asserted by a human-curated category, never inferred from a headline.
Every revision we made to this number, newest first, with the reasoning recorded at the time — including the times we changed our mind.
Maritime-grounded (Agora reconcile 2026-06-05): both chokepoints denied in-scenario — Hormuz near-zero transits, Suez suspended, P&I cancelled on both corridors. Trigger (30+ day simultaneous Hormuz + Red Sea closure) substantially met. Reconciled the 92/95/99 conflict to the curated base 92 (within the audit defensible 85-95 band). Replaces the prior cross-pasted nuclear-breakout reason.
Framework-derived analytical assessment. Not investment advice.